The rise and fall of productivity

Ron Collett, president and CEO, Numetrics
10/22/2010 1:40 PM EDT

Is IC design productivity rising or falling? It’s a question on the minds of semiconductor executives and R&D managers throughout the industry. The answer depends on whether we view it in absolute versus relative terms. Both have merit. In absolute terms it’s rising, but in relative terms it’s falling.

A “relative” measurement compares changes in productivity to changes in design complexity: How much is productivity increasing compared to the increase in design complexity? Through that lens, productivity is falling, and recently the decline has become steeper. How do I know? Aside from rigorously measuring it for more than 10 years, I know that design team sizes have been steadily increasing – the facts and data irrefutably confirm it. That means productivity isn’t keeping pace with rising design complexity. The “escape hatch” solution has been to increase design team size – throw more engineers at the problem. Alternatively, if productivity was keeping pace or increasing, average team size would be flat or declining, respectively.

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