Trust in the Semico IPI: 2012 Forecasts Up 7.7%

Phoenix, AZ - August 7th, 2012 -- The Semico IPI is right again. As the IPI chart shows, starting in August 2011, the IPI began to dip, signaling a change in semiconductor revenue growth. At the beginning of 2012 Semico was more optimistic than the IPI indicated due to the belief that there was pent-up demand for PCs from the floods in Thailand and new smartphone, TV and Ultrabook models would increase electronic purchases. Semico has revised our 2012 forecast from 8 - 10% to 6 - 8%.

IPI chart

What is going on?

We had hoped that Europe would be able to fix their problems, but they're still struggling. European banks say they are doing everything they can to save the Euro, but they said the same thing a few months ago. And now with Spain and Italy in trouble, the uncertainty has gone up not down, making everyone cautious about building new products. Worse, if banks in Europe fail, then U.S. banks will also suffer.

TSMC's second quarter grew 20%, and Morris Chang says there is now an inventory problem so today's wafers are going to end up as product in the third quarter. Inventory buildup means OEMs won't be ordering as much during the third quarter, and while orders could pick up if the back to school sales are strong, those orders will count in the fourth quarter instead of the third.

The second quarter U.S. GDP growth was 1.5%, smaller than the first quarter, which means consumers are spending less. Gas prices are dropping which is a mixed bag of news. Good news for consumers, but the lower prices are because of a lower demand due to a retracting economy.

The Semico IPI report is a monthly report and is the most accurate forecasting tool in the industry. If you'd like to know more or to order this report, contact Rick Vogelei at rickv@semico.com.

About Semico
We are a semiconductor marketing & consulting research company located in Phoenix, Arizona. Semico was founded in 1994 by a group of semiconductor industry experts. We have improved the validity of semiconductor product forecasts via technology roadmaps in end-use markets. Semico offers custom consulting, portfolio packages, individual market research studies and premier industry conferences.